Guignardia bidwellii is a fungus that causes black rot in grapes and is not found in Aotearoa/New Zealand. G. bidwellii is native to North America and has spread to Europe, Central and South America, Asia, Africa, and Australasia (New South Wales and Christmas Island). Global spread most likely occurred via grape cuttings and rootstocks, contaminated micro-propagated plants and fresh grape berries, and alternative hosts produced as nursery plants such as Asplenium nidus (bird’s nest fern) and Pathenocissus tricuspidate (Boston ivy). An integrated biosecurity risk assessment model (IBRAM-pest) was developed to assess the incursion risk of arthropod pests. IBRAM-pest is based on Bayesian Network (BN) models that provide a useful framework representing all direct and indirect probalistic relationships among a complex set of variables and uncertainty that is inherent in biosecurity data. IBRAM-pest has been modified to estimate incursion risk for plant pathogens (IBRAM-path) and a case study for G. bidwellii has been tested. Inputs include import data for grapes and visitors sourced from affected countries, as well as estimated infection rates. Sensible estimates were obtained for incursion risk based on month and geographic location. The estimated incursion risk increased four-fold if current measures at the border by biosecurity officials were to be discontinued. Climate change was estimated to have a nil effect on changing the risk of establishment by G. bidwellii. IBRAM-pest was able to be modified to estimate incursion risk for a plant pathogen.